The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) forecasts a trade surplus of USD 51.65 billion next year, against the also record-breaking surplus of USD 45.65 billion this year.

From the Newsroom*

São Paulo – The Brazilian Foreign Trade Association (AEB) is expecting a Brazilian trade surplus of USD 51.65 billion in 2017, a new historic record. If confirmed, it will be an increase of 13.1% over this year’s trade surplus of USD 45.65 billion that the association is forecasting for 2016, also a record-breaking number on its own.

In an interview with Agência Brasil, the association’s president, José Augusto de Castro, said that he’s expecting a recovery of exports and imports next year. This year and in 2015, imports’ sharper drop, due to the recession, secured a surplus for the trade balance.

According to Castro, the increase in the price of commodities can contribute for foreign sales to go up. “It’s probable that they see an increase in 2017, especially oil and iron ore. I think there will be a small increase with imports also. But the chance to make a mistake is too great, because besides all that we also have the Trump effect,” said the executive.

The inauguration of the new president of the United States, Donald Trump, brings many uncertainties to the domestic and global economic scenarios. Experts interviewed by Agência Brasil believe he can adopt protectionist measures for the world’s largest economy, impacting global trade.

“Probably, exports and imports will go up a little. A total of 50% of all Brazilian imports is made up of inputs for the industry. When you have a return to economic growth, imports of inputs go significantly up,” said Welber Barral, from DA Barral M Jorge Consultoria, to Agência Brasil. The growth of the GDP in 2017 should range from 0.5% to 1%.

AEB believes in a 7.2% growth for exports, from USD 184.16 billion forecasted for 2016 (data hasn’t been close yet) to USD 197.36 billion next year. Imports, in turn, will increase from the expected USD 138.51 billion in 2016 to USD 145.71 billion in 2017, a 5.2% surge.

Among basic goods, AEB is forecasting an increase in exports especially of soy beans (13.4%), iron ore (35.7%), crude oil (26.6%) and poultry (6.2%). Among semi-finished products, the forecast highlights the increase in exports of sugar (2.9%) and wood pulp (8.8%). Meanwhile, among finished products, the highlight in the forecast is the increase in exports of aircrafts (8.2%) and auto (10.8%).

*Translated by Sérgio Kakitani